Nobody in the NBA believes it will happen — and there are more than $ 75 million reasons why.

As Cooper Flagg leads Duke into the NCAA Tournament Friday — where they are among the favorites to be standing on stage in San Antonio holding up the NCAA Championship trophy — there will be talk about Flagg returning to Duke for another season. He has said he's thought about it, even telling The Athletic," S***, I want to come back next year."

Wanting to is one thing — the college experience can be special, and Flagg is young at age 18 — but actually doing it is another. It can't be stressed enough that nobody in the NBA thinks Flagg will pass up being the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft to return to Durham, North Carolina, for another season. There are $ 75 million reasons why, but they break down into two key areas.

Injury risk

Flagg would likely be the No. 1 pick in 2026 as well — although the 2026 NBA Draft is deeper with projected franchise players including A.J. Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Nate Ament and Darryn Peterson — but the biggest risk is a major injury.

Every time any player steps on the court there is the risk of injury, but for Flagg it could have massive financial consequences. First, a significant knee, back, or foot injury could put doubt in the minds of the always risk-averse general managers picking at the top of the 2026 draft. With other high-level players available who teams like, Flagg could fall down draft boards.

More concerning, he might not be the same player physically. Scouts NBC Sports has spoken with believe Flagg could well become an All-NBA player — top 15 in the league — and saying he becomes a top-five player in the league who garners MVP votes someday is undoubtedly possible. A significant injury could put that in jeopardy, or at least lead to a career when his injury status is as discussed as much as how great he is when healthy (think Zion Williamson or Kawhi Leonard, for example).

Money

However, the real reason Flagg likely enters the 2025 NBA Draft is money — next season and beyond.

This season it is estimated Flagg makes about $ 4.8 million in NIL money (those figures are not official and public), which would be the most of any college basketball player and trails only Texas quarterback Arch Manning ($ 6.5 million) in all of college sports. If Flagg returned to Duke, maybe deals could be found to increase that number — but not enough to match the rookie scale salary of the NBA. Last year's No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher of the Atlanta Hawks, is making $ 13.6 million this season in salary alone and will make $ 57 million over the first four years of his rookie contract (and Flagg's contract would be larger as the NBA salary cap will go up by 10% this season.

And that's not the "real" money. Flagg staying in college would delay starting the clock on his second contract, where the real generational wealth will come into play. This coming summer, sure-fire rookie contract max extension players such as Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley can sign five-year deals worth $ 224.3 million — at least. Make an All-NBA team (or be named MVP or Defensive Player of the Year) in that stretch and the max can jump to $ 269 million. Years from now, when Flagg would be eligible, that max extension will be more.

Then there's the longer-term, on the back end of Flagg's future NBA career, which Bobby Marx of ESPN discussed.

ESPN's Bobby Marks projects that Flagg returning to Duke could cost him, based on estimated cap numbers, $ 75 million to $ 125 million in potential salary on the backend of his NBA career since he would delay the start of his service clock for his second and third pro contracts. Players with 10 years of service are eligible for a supermax deal, a type of contract extension in which teams can give eligible players up to 35% of the total cap space allotted to that team for up to five years.

It's too much money to leave on the table.

There is no doubt Flagg loves Duke and his college experience — he's just 18, and he may love it more by the time the NCAA Tournament ends. However, taking less money in the short- and long-term while taking on increased risk is just not smart. And Flagg, if nothing else, is smart. He will enter the 2025 NBA Draft and go No. 1. Around the NBA, there is no doubt.