Less than two years ago, Joe Joyce was the most avoided heavyweight in the division.

On Saturday, at the Co-op Live arena on the outskirts of Manchester, Joyce is fighting for his boxing life when he meets Croatia’s Filip Hrgovic. It has been a dramatic shift in fortunes.

In 2023, Joyce was unbeaten in 15 fights, and he had dropped and stopped Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker in long and attritional brawls. He was the danger, he was the future.

Then, Joyce was matched in April 2023 with Zhilei Zhang, who in his previous fight had lost a tight 12-round title eliminator to Hrgovic. Joyce started as a heavy favourite that night at the forsaken CopperBox, the venue that boxing is trying to leave behind.

It was not an easy fight, but another stoppage win for Joyce would have meant that he was an irresistible contender for one of the heavyweight champions. Joyce was the juggernaut, his style a relentless problem for any heavyweight.

At the time, Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury held the four belts, and they were a long, long way from agreeing terms to fight each other. Joyce was waiting and all he had to do was beat Zhang – if he won, he got Usyk that summer. The truth is that Joyce could have taken a far easier fight and still had the call for Usyk.

The fight was stopped after an inspection of Joyce’s damaged right eye in round six; Zhang was taking over, Joyce looked vulnerable for the first time as a professional. He had an off night, that was the storyline. A rematch was called; in the awkward aftermath, Dubois got the Usyk title fight in the late summer in Poland and was stopped.

The rematch was set for Wembley Arena in September, Zhang was magnificent and set Joyce up repeatedly before a sickening single-punch knockout in round three. It looked like Joyce’s resistance had vanished overnight. The end was a shock, Zhang was not that type of puncher; Joyce was in crisis.

Meanwhile, Hrgovic, having beaten Zhang in an eliminator for a version of the world title, was being frozen out of a heavyweight division where the two champions and their people had seen sense and arranged a couple of undisputed fights. No other sport resembles a soap opera quite like the heavyweight division.

During the last year, as Usyk and Fury made millions and fought twice, Joyce lost to Derek Chisora and Hrgovic was stopped on cuts by Daniel Dubois; the ringside doctor saved Hrgovic from getting badly beaten in a fight that was slipping painfully away. The Chisora renaissance – he is now mandated to challenge Dubois for the IBF heavyweight title – would genuinely be hard to invent.

Somehow, in the typical way that heavyweight boxing works, Hrgovic and Joyce meet in a fight for survival; it is one of the best last-chance-saloon shootouts of recent years. Both lost their last fight, and both know that they must win this fight to stay relevant in the heavyweight business. It really is that simple.

Joyce is now 39, has lost three times, and it seems like a long, long time ago that he was a controversial loser in the Olympic final in Rio to Frenchman Tony Yoka. Hrgovic lost in the semi-final to Yoka at the same Olympics.

In the amateur ranks, Joyce beat Hrgovic at York Hall in Bethnal Green back in 2013, in a fight over five rounds, which was part of the now defunct World Series of Boxing. It was a hard fight, and it was a split decision on the night.

Hrgovic was officially named as Joyce’s opponent just over two weeks ago after Dillian Whyte withdrew with an injury; the switch has created a better fight in many ways. Whyte and Joyce can still happen – after the resurrection of Chisora, it feels like just about anything can happen in boxing’s wild, wild west.

Joyce against Hrgovic will most likely be a desperate struggle because both men feel they have something to prove, some unfinished business in a cruel sport that breaks hearts as often as it breaks noses.

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