2025 NBA Playoffs: Key matchups to watch in every first-round series
We've got you covered for the 2025 NBA playoffs. Check out our series-by-series previews, breaking down the keys to each matchup, plus predictions.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Matchup to watch: The forwards
Rarely do we see both teams' best two players match up with each other, but we may here.
In their lone meeting, Banchero spent the bulk of his time on Tatum and held up fairly well when Tatum was not pick-and-rolling into more advantageous matchups in a 30-point performance. Both are among the NBA's strongest power forwards, at least among the new type that can create, well … everything. They are Duke-bred to be great. One was a No. 1 overall pick. The other should have been. What theater.
Wagner and Brown never faced each other during the regular season, but Wagner defended few more people than he did Brown last season. They are creative wings of their own right. They will get to their spots and organize others into theirs just as easily. It is just that Brown has no shortage of outlets, as, in addition to Tatum, White and Holiday and Porziņģis or Horford are waiting at the arc for an open 3. — Rohrbach
Magic-Celtics series preview, schedule and prediction
Matchup to watch: Cade vs. KAT (and the Knicks’ D as a whole)
Cunningham feasted against New York during the regular season, averaging 30.8 points and 8.3 assists in 33.6 minutes per game while shooting 56.3% from the floor, 52% from 3-point land and 80% at the free-throw line. The Pistons torched the Knicks to the tune of 121.4 points per 100 possessions with Cade at the controls — 8.1 points-per-100 higher than New York’s full-season defensive rating.
The key: Cunningham comfortably attacking, manipulating and exploiting the Knicks in their preferred pick-and-roll coverage, which sees New York’s bigs — and Towns in particular — drop back to protect the paint. That gives the ball-handler room to maneuver … which, against an operator like Cunningham, who pushed his game to a new level this season by becoming a 35% pull-up 3-point shooter, can be hazardous to your health.
If he turns the corner and gets a step, the 6-foot-6, 235-pound Cunningham is big enough to bulldoze the slighter Bridges or smaller Hart, Brunson and McBride, or to keep them on his hip and get to a comfortable spot in the midrange. The bigger, stronger Anunoby saw less time on Cunningham than Bridges or McBride during the regular season; it’ll be interesting to see if Thibodeau changes that.
If Cunningham can win the KAT-and-mouse game (sorry), getting a retreating Towns to take a step toward him in hopes of stopping the ball, he can either thread a pocket pass or loft a lob to the screener rolling behind the defense. Robinson, who has looked pretty damn good since returning from ankle surgery, is a much better defender in the pick-and-roll than Towns or Precious Achiuwa; heavier minutes for him might be worth a look. — Devine
Pistons-Knicks series preview, schedule and prediction
Matchup to watch: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Pascal Siakam
Nobody has spent more time defending Antetokounmpo than Siakam did in parts of 130 possessions over a total of 27 minutes this season, according to the NBA's tracking data. In those minutes Giannis scored 47 points on 67% shooting (22-33 FG). Turner might have been a worse option against the Greek Freak, allowing 38 points on 56% shooting (14-25 FG) in only 39 possessions, per the tracking data.
Quite simply: The Pacers have nobody who can stop Giannis. This is where we remind you that he missed the entirety of last year's first-round series between the two teams, paving the way for Indiana's victory. — Rohrbach
Bucks-Pacers series preview, schedule and prediction
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Matchup to watch: Small vs. big
Yes, that’s an oversimplification. Fred VanVleet, perhaps Houston’s most important player for his ability to organize their offense and protect the ball, is (listed at) 6-foot even. Kerr has two bigs to deploy off the bench: the stalwart Looney and rookie Quinten Post. (Jonathan Kuminga’s there, too … if Kerr feels like looking for him.)
For the most part, though, that’s the stylistic clash at the heart of this series. Golden State wants to downsize and put skill on the floor, spreading you out and slicing you up with ball and body movement. Houston loves nothing more than smothering you with size, giving you nowhere to run to, baby, nowhere to hide. — Devine
Warriors-Rockets series preview, schedule and prediction
Matchup to watch: Anthony Edwards vs. the Lakers' weak link
It could be Dončić, who was attacked relentlessly in last season's NBA Finals. It could be Reaves. It could be James, who at 40 years old is not the defensive stalwart he once was. Whomever Edwards decides is the weakest link on Los Angeles' defense, he will attack nonstop, and he will have no shortage of soft targets.
Conversely, if the Lakers can bottle up Edwards, prepare yourself for a hefty load of Randle, and that is no recipe for playoff success. Edwards will switch off Finney-Smith and into more advantageous pick-and-roll matchups, where he nets 1.02 points per possession. Is that enough to counter the firepower of Dončić, James and Reaves? That will depend on how weak the Lakers' weakest link is and whether Edwards can be as successful against it as the Lakers' offensive trio will be against a stronger defense. — Rohrbach
Wolves-Lakers series preview, schedule and prediction
Matchup to watch: The Clippers vs. Jamal Murray
L.A. can’t “stop” Jokić — or even really slow him down. What they can do, though, is try to limit the fallout by cutting off Denver’s other scorers. That means Murray.
Denver went 24-11 when Murray scored 20 or more points this season, and just 17-15 when he didn’t. Murray also just missed six straight games with a right hamstring injury; he returned for the final two games of the regular season, but shot just 11-of-28 from the floor in them.
Maybe the six days between the regular-season finale and Game 1 will give Murray enough rest and practice time to reach top form by tipoff. But Lue’s going to make him prove it.
Expect Murray to see a lot of Kris Dunn, an elite point-of-attack menace — tied for 10th in the NBA in steals and 17th in deflections per game, second in defensive estimated plus-minus — who limited Murray to just three points on four shots across 59 partial possessions during the regular season. The Clips also have plenty of other big, long options to throw at Murray off the bench: Derrick Jones Jr., Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons, maybe Nicolas Batum (who did yeoman’s work against Jalen Brunson last spring). — Devine
Clippers-Nuggets series preview, schedule and prediction
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