Look at the betting odds and one would think the NBA MVP race is over. According to BetMGM, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is -2000 to win his first MVP award this season, while defending MVP Nikola Jokic is second at +800.

From my vantage point, those odds make no sense. Every media member with a vote I have spoken to, or I have seen write on the MVP race, is torn (myself included). The margins in this race are razor-thin. It's a coin flip and there is no clear consensus. If anything, there seems to be a slight lean toward Jokic.

With just a few weeks left in the NBA season, let's break it down:

2025 NBA MVP Rankings:

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Ask me again in 48 hours and this order might change — it was flipped 48 hours ago.

Having Gilgeous-Alexander on top may be recency bias because I was in the Intuit Dome Sunday night when SGA and the Thunder played the Clippers — and he struggled, 7-of-29 shooting, 1-of-11 from 3. However, what impressed me was that he still impacted winning with his shot creation and dishing out eight assists, making a key deflection late, and having two blocked shots in clutch time — SGA's leadership was on display. He got them a win against a hot Clippers team (winners of 8-of-10) on a night he was cold and the Thunder were without their second and third best players (Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren).

That's what MVPs do.

To be fair, that's what Nikola Jokic does, too. He is averaging a triple-double this season — 29.1 points, 12.8 rebounds and 10.3 assists a game — and is having a better statistical season than any year he won the MVP. The compelling argument for Jokic is around the "valuable" part of MVP — Denver is not good when he is off the court. Jokic carries that team. We've seen some of that in the past week with Jokic out while dealing with an ankle issue, the Nuggets have a couple of wins but this team is not the same.

Jokic is a legit MVP. There's no shade here toward anyone who votes for him.

However, the argument that he drives winning more than SGA (or, at least, dramatically more) is flawed. First, Gilgeous-Alexander should not be faulted because Sam Presti did a great job of roster construction. Beyond that, SGA has more win shares per 48 minutes (he's 10th all-time in that category), and he's a better defender. Watch the Thunder and you can see how much he drives this team, he is the straw that stirs the drink on the best team in the league.

Also, I think this historical stat has weight: Ten times in NBA history the NBA's leading scorer was on a 60+ win team, something Gilgeous-Alexander will do this year. Nine of those players won MVP. The one that didn't was Michael Jordan in the 1996-97 season when voters gave it to Karl Malone, a case now seen as voter fatigue with Jordan.

All that said, I'll likely flip-flop my vote a few times before ballots are cast in April. This race is that close.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

4. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

This is the one spot on the ballot where there is confidence this is how the final vote will go down. I have former MVP Antetokounmpo as a relatively clear third and Celtics star Tatum as a clear fourth. Not that the gap between them is massive — it's not — but Antetokounmpo's slightly higher scoring (30.2 points a game, second in the league), slightly better defense and strength on the glass drive is more valuable in Milwaukee than Tatum's play is in Boston (as great as he is).

I imagine my final ballot will have these two in this order.

5. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

Much like the top of the MVP ladder, this fifth spot is undecided, except it is far more wide open. If I had to cast a ballot today I would vote for LeBron James, but there are two Cavaliers — Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley — who have a legitimate case for this last spot on the ballot.

Mitchell is the archetype of an MVP, the leading scorer and primary shot creator on the team with the best record in the East, averaging 23.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists a night. He's the guy most likely to win the fifth spot on the ballot because he checks a lot of boxes for what we expect in an MVP, and the Cavaliers should be rewarded for their season.

However, is he even the best player on his own team? Because of his elite defense and all around offensive game, I would select Evan Mobley before him. Mobley is averaging 18.6 points a game, grabbing 9.3 rebounds, shooting 37.2% from beyond the arc, and is likely to win Defensive Player of the Year. For my money, he is more valuable than Mitchell in Cleveland.

There is one other thing in Cleveland: With the Cavaliers, every night it feels like their best player is someone different — it's a strength of the team that they have that many ways to win, but it doesn't help an individual's MVP case.

LeBron's case, like Mobley's, is based more on his all-around game — except he's putting up better numbers. LeBron is averaging 24.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists a game.

My belief in LeBron for the fifth spot was strengthened by his recent groin injury — watching L.A. without him, it was evident how much he means beyond just scoring to the Lakers. He's the guy who makes the defense work, the glue on offense who can fill different roles depending on what the game calls for, and the guy who just lifts up the play of everyone around him.

LeBron (and the Lakers) have also struggled in the couple of games since his return, and if that continues this fifth-place vote will change.

Just missing the cut: Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks), Jalen Brunson (Knicks), Stephen Curry (Warriors), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies).